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A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the country and caused chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.

That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Not Ready

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."

New Title Aims to Stir Debate

The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.

Lack of Serious Debate

Partisan language for and against unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.

Arguments encompass identity markers, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.

Likelihood of Referendum

The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has got something to learn from the other's positions."

Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster must participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."